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Revealed: The staggering statistic which exhibits simply how LOPSIDED the Champions League draw is – and the 2 European giants with much less probability of successful it than Newcastle!

umair by umair
28 February 2026
in Football
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Revealed: The staggering statistic which shows just how LOPSIDED the Champions League draw is - and the two European giants with less chance of winning it than Newcastle!

By BEN WILLCOCKS, ASSISTANT SPORTS EDITOR

Printed: 18:06 EST, 27 February 2026 | Up to date: 18:08 EST, 27 February 2026

Friday’s Champions League knockout draw is so unbalanced that each group to have received the competitors over the previous decade has been positioned on the identical facet of the bracket.

Paris Saint-Germain, Actual Madrid, Manchester Metropolis, Chelsea, Bayern Munich and Liverpool – the six European heavyweights to win the Champions League since 2016 – have all remarkably discovered themselves on one half of the draw.

Gifted a dream path to the ultimate, Arsenal are actually the bookies’ favourites to elevate the Champions League trophy for the primary time in Could after dodging each single winner of the previous 10 years.

The Gunners have drawn Bayer Leverkusen within the spherical of 16 subsequent month earlier than a possible quarter-final conflict towards both Sporting Lisbon or this season’s shock package deal Bodo/Glimt.

Barcelona, who received the Champions League in 2015, are one of many 4 groups Arsenal might meet within the semi-final, however the Catalans should first navigate a last-16 tie towards Newcastle and a quarter-final with both Tottenham or LaLiga rivals Atletico Madrid.

On the more durable facet of the draw, Chelsea face PSG within the spherical of 16 – a repeat of final summer time’s inaugural Membership World Cup remaining – and Liverpool tackle Galatasaray once more having misplaced to them 1-0 through the group part.

Friday’s Champions League knockout draw is so unbalanced that each group to have received the competitors over the previous decade has been positioned on the identical facet of the bracket

Man City and Real Madrid, who face each other again in the round of 16, are among the six Champions League winners since 2016, alongside PSG, Liverpool, Chelsea and Bayern Munich

Man Metropolis and Actual Madrid, who face one another once more within the spherical of 16, are among the many six Champions League winners since 2016, alongside PSG, Liverpool, Chelsea and Bayern Munich

PSG won the Champions League last season and will face Chelsea in the round of 16

PSG received the Champions League final season and can face Chelsea within the spherical of 16

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  • OPTA’S CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PREDICTIONS 
  • Share or touch upon this text: Revealed: The staggering statistic which exhibits simply how LOPSIDED the Champions League draw is – and the 2 European giants with much less probability of successful it than Newcastle!
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OPTA’S CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PREDICTIONS 

Arsenal – 27.40% probability

Bayern Munich – 14.28% probability 

Liverpool – 12.83% probability 

Man Metropolis – 10.79% probability

Barcelona – 7.72% probability

Chelsea – 6.86% probability 

Newcastle – 4.66% probability

Paris Saint-Germain – 4.64% probability

Actual Madrid – 2.78% probability

Sporting Lisbon – 2.73% probability

Atletico Madrid – 2.00% probability

Tottenham – 1.22% probability 

 

In the meantime, Manchester Metropolis have drawn the acquainted problem of Actual Madrid within the spherical of 16, marking the sixth assembly between the 2 European giants for the reason that 2020–21 season and the primary time in Champions League historical past that two groups have confronted one another within the knockout stage for 5 consecutive seasons.

Defeating Actual Madrid, as they did 1-0 through the group part in December, would see Metropolis tackle both Atalanta or Bayern Munich, who’re predicted to satisfy Arsenal within the remaining in Budapest in accordance with OPTA’s newest Champions League predictions.

Remarkably, because of the lopsided nature of the draw, Newcastle have been given a greater probability of successful the event than each PSG and Actual Madrid at 4.66%.

The present holders have been given 4.64% of an opportunity by comparability whereas Actual Madrid are solely predicted at 2.78% to elevate the trophy.

In line with OPTA’s supercomputer, the Gunners are in with a whopping 27.4% probability of lifting the trophy, with Bayern Munich (14.28%), Liverpool (12.83%) and Manchester Metropolis (10.79%) the following favourites. 

Mikel Arteta made no apology for Arsenal’s beneficial draw, insisting his group has ‘earned the suitable’ to a neater route after successful the group part with an ideal report of eight wins from eight.

‘Nicely, we’re very excited to play the following spherical,’ the Spaniard stated on Friday. ‘We’ve got earned the suitable to be in a robust place (with) what we have carried out within the group stage, and that is it.

‘And now we have to begin to analyse them and discover methods to be higher than them (Bayer Leverkusen), to attempt to undergo the tie.’

Requested if the route forward offers him pleasure, Arteta added: ‘Yeah, we’re actually excited. Clearly, being within the forefront and the way in which the group is persistently performing offers you plenty of hope and constructive ideas about what’s coming.’



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Revealed: The staggering statistic which exhibits simply how LOPSIDED the Champions League draw is – and the 2 European giants with much less probability of successful it than Newcastle!

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